美国劳动力市场生产率在第三季度下滑。薪水增加,工作时间增加,但工人的产出仅以温和的速度增长。
对一个月前最初发布的数据进行的修订表明,生产率下降的程度比人们担心的还要严重,经季节性调整后下降了 5.2%。这是自 1960 年第二季度生产力下降 6.1% 以来的最大季度降幅。
对数据的初步读取显示,自 1981 年以来跌幅最大。
与此同时,第三季度单位劳动力成本以 9.6% 的年率攀升,反映出时薪增长 3%,生产力下降 5.2%。
就业的快速复苏导致工作时间增加,而对工人的竞争正在推高工资。但产出并没有迅速上升。
经济学家警告不要过多地解读这一数据点。第三季度不仅供应链问题仍未完全解决,而且冠状病毒的三角洲变体也阻碍了复苏,导致病例增加,经济活动与第二季度相比放缓。
但据 Action Economics 首席经济学家迈克·英格兰德 (Mike Englund) 称,即使第三季度出现大幅下滑,今年的生产力仍有望提高,他预计 2021 年将增长 1.7%,称其为“稳健增长”。
American productivity fell by the largest amount since 1960
US labor market productivity tanked in the third quarter. Paychecks grew and the number of hours worked jumped, but workers' output increased only at a moderate pace.
Revisions to the data that were initially published a month ago show that the productivity drop was even worse than feared, falling 5.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis. That's the steepest decline in the quarterly rate since the second quarter of 1960 when productivity fell 6.1%.
The initial read on the data had shown the worst drop since 1981.
Unit labor costs, meanwhile, climbed at an annual rate of 9.6% in the third quarter, reflecting a 3% increase in hourly compensation and a 5.2% decrease in productivity.
The rapid jobs recovery is leading to more hours worked, and the competition for workers is pushing up wages. But output isn't rising as quickly.
Economists warn not to read too much into this one data point. Not only was the third quarter plagued by supply chain issues that are still not fully resolved, it was also when the Delta variant of the coronavirus threw a wrench into the recovery, causing cases to rise and economic activity to slow compared to the second quarter.
But even with the steep decline in the third quarter, productivity for the year is still expected to increase, according to Mike Englund, chief economist at Action Economics, who expects a 1.7% increase in 2021, calling it a "solid gain."