How hoarding saved Black Friday
For months, there have been warnings to shoppers: Get through your holiday to-do list early. Wait until Black Friday or later, and you may not be able to find what you want.
But as stores prepare for the peak of the most important season for retailers, bigger companies are starting to send a different message: You may not have to worry about empty shelves after all.
What's happening: Anxious about huge shipping delays, large chains have been stocking up on products for months. Some, like Walmart (WMT) and Costco (COST), have been chartering their own ships to travel from production hubs in Asia, while others have been leveraging long-term relationships with suppliers to get what they need.
"The availability of inventory is going to be better at the large, well-positioned retailers who either have more scale or flexibility to navigate through these challenges, or they'll be viewed as preferential partners for their vendors," UBS analyst Michael Lasser told me.
Walmart's inventory levels rose 11.5% during its most recent quarter compared with a year ago, the company said last week, while Target's inventory levels increased 18%. TJX (TJX) said its inventory has climbed a more modest 4%.
"Most of the inventory we need for the holiday season has already been delivered to us or is scheduled to arrive in stores and online in time for the holidays," TJX CEO Ernie Herrman told analysts last week.
These companies have faced higher costs to secure hot items. But unlike some competitors, they can afford to pay more when needed.
Not everyone has gotten it right. Ross Stores (ROST) said that despite chartering an ocean vessel, it had some concerns about getting merchandise in time for the holidays due to clogged ports.
Victoria's Secret also said that nearly 50% of its holiday merchandise is stuck in transit as Black Friday approaches. The company is trying to rely on planes to deliver merchandise, but it may be too late. Compared to this time last year, the retailer has 30% less pajama sets, a popular gift item.
Lasser said the US companies struggling the most are those that import a larger share of their products from overseas. Walmart, he noted, sources two-thirds of its goods domestically, which helps insulate them from issues at ports.
Then there's smaller retailers, which can't just throw money at the problem. They could fall even further behind the biggest players in the coming weeks.
The gap "has been widening for years," Lasser said. "I would expect that to continue to be the case this holiday season."
Casting doubt on Covid's 'Great Migration'
The "Great Migration" may not be as pronounced as once thought.
The US Census Bureau recently released data showing that migration activity has fallen to its lowest rate in more than 70 years, my CNN Business colleague Alicia Wallace reports. The findings toss some cold water on anecdotes that Americans were relocating more than ever during the pandemic.
From 2020 to 2021, nearly 27.1 million Americans, or 8.4% of the US population, reported living in a different residence than the year prior. That's down from 9.3% the previous year. The migration rate has been falling steadily since 2014.
Rethinking the narrative: There might not have been a massive overall trend of people moving across the country. But net migration out of urban neighborhoods did climb during the early stages of the pandemic, said Stephan D. Whitaker, a policy economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland who has been closely studying migration patterns.
"Flows of migrants out of high-cost, large metro areas did increase during the pandemic," Whitaker said. "However, many other types of moves, both long distance and local, declined. Summing all these moves reveals that, overall, fewer people relocated during the first year of the pandemic."
Whitaker has found that some outflows from high-cost metro areas continued through spring 2021, as people relocated to smaller cities nearby and fast-growing destinations like Las Vegas and Nashville.
At the same time, people started returning to large cities — though not enough to replace those who had left.
囤积库存如何拯救黑色星期五
几个月来，一直在向购物者发出警告：尽早完成假期待办事项清单。等到黑色星期五或更晚，您可能找不到想要的东西。
但随着商店为零售商最重要的旺季做准备，大公司开始发出不同的信息：毕竟你可能不必担心货架空空如也。
发生了什么：由于担心巨大的运输延迟，大型连锁店几个月来一直在囤积产品。一些公司，如沃尔玛 (WMT) 和 Costco (COST)，一直在租用自己的船只从亚洲的生产中心出发，而另一些公司则一直利用与供应商的长期关系来获得他们需要的东西。
瑞银分析师迈克尔·拉瑟 (Michael Lasser) 表示：“大型、定位良好的零售商的库存可用性将更好，这些零售商要么拥有更大的规模或灵活性来应对这些挑战，要么被视为供应商的优先合作伙伴。”我。
该公司上周表示，沃尔玛最近一个季度的库存水平与去年同期相比增长了 11.5%，而 Target 的库存水平则增加了 18%。 TJX (TJX) 表示其库存增长了 4%。
TJX 首席执行官 Ernie Herrman 上周告诉分析师：“我们假期所需的大部分库存已经交付给我们，或者计划在假期前及时到达商店和网上。”
这些公司在保护热门物品方面面临更高的成本。但与某些竞争对手不同的是，他们有能力在需要时支付更多费用。
不是每个人都做对了。 Ross Stores (ROST) 表示，尽管租用了一艘远洋船，但由于港口堵塞，它对在假期及时收到商品感到担忧。
维多利亚的秘密还表示，随着黑色星期五的临近，其近 50% 的假日商品被困在运输途中。该公司正试图依靠飞机运送商品，但可能为时已晚。与去年同期相比，这家零售商的睡衣套装（一种受欢迎的礼品）减少了 30%。
拉塞尔说，最苦恼的美国公司是那些从海外进口更多产品的公司。他指出，沃尔玛三分之二的商品来自国内，这有助于避免它们在港口出现问题。
然后是较小的零售商，它们不能只花钱解决这个问题。在接下来的几周内，他们可能会进一步落后于最大的球员。
拉塞尔说，这种差距“多年来一直在扩大”。 “我预计这个假期将继续如此。”
对 Covid 的“大迁移”表示怀疑
“大迁徙”可能并不像人们想象的那么明显。
美国人口普查局最近发布的数据显示，移民活动已降至 70 多年来的最低水平，我的 CNN 商业同事艾丽西亚华莱士报道。这些发现给美国人在大流行期间比以往任何时候都搬迁更多的轶事泼了一盆冷水。
从 2020 年到 2021 年，近 2710 万美国人（占美国人口的 8.4%）报告说居住在与前一年不同的住所。这比前一年的 9.3% 有所下降。自 2014 年以来，移民率一直在稳步下降。
重新思考叙述：人们在全国范围内流动的总体趋势可能并不大。但一直在密切研究移民模式的克利夫兰联邦储备银行政策经济学家斯蒂芬·D·惠特克 (Stephan D. Whitaker) 表示，在大流行的早期阶段，城市社区的净移民确实在攀升。
惠特克说：“在大流行期间，从高成本、大型都市区流出的移民确实增加了。” “然而，许多其他类型的长途和本地搬迁都减少了。总结所有这些搬迁表明，总体而言，在大流行的第一年搬迁的人数减少了。”
惠特克发现，随着人们搬迁到附近的小城市以及拉斯维加斯和纳什维尔等快速发展的目的地，高成本都会区的一些外流一直持续到 2021 年春季。
与此同时，人们开始返回大城市——尽管还不足以取代那些离开的人。
