美国房屋销售有望创下 2006 年以来最好的一年

(CNN)Despite low inventory and rising prices, home sales inched higher in October, marking a second straight month of growth, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors.

Sales of existing homes, which include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 0.8% month-over-month. After slowing during the summer, sales reignited in September, which saw a 7% monthly increase.

Year-over-year, home sales were down 5.8% from October 2020, which marked the cyclical peak in the pandemic surge in home buying.

NAR's chief economist Lawrence Yun said this year's sales are on track to surpass 6 million homes, which would be the strongest performance since 2006.

"Home sales remain resilient, despite low inventory and increasing affordability challenges," said Yun. "Inflationary pressures, such as fast-rising rents and increasing consumer prices, may have some prospective buyers seeking the protection of a fixed, consistent mortgage payment."

Still, the short supply of homes available for sale continues to drive home prices even higher, making the purchase of a home even less affordable for first-time and lower income buyers.

The median existing-home price for all housing types in October was $353,900, up 13% from a year ago. This marks 116 straight months -- or more than nine and a half years -- of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.

Inventory remains tight

The short supply of inventory continues to weigh heavily on the housing market and it doesn't appear to be letting up anytime soon.

There were 1.25 million homes available for sale at the end of October, down 12% from a year ago and slightly lower than September, NAR reported.

At the current sales pace, the market has a 2.4-month supply of homes. Typically, a balanced market has roughly a 6-month supply of homes.

"While competition for homes has eased somewhat since the mania months earlier this year, competition is still fierce and prices are still rising at double-digit rates," said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.

Rising home prices have made things especially difficult for lower-income buyers since there is more inventory available at the higher end of the market, said Frick.

In October, sales of homes priced between $250,000 and $500,000 were down by 2% from a year ago because there just weren't enough homes to meet demand. Meanwhile, sales of homes priced from $500,000 to $750,000 were up 18% from a year ago and those costing more than $1 million were up 31%.

This highlights the need for more homes -- both from existing homeowners and from new construction -- to be put on the market to supplement and replenish the country's aging housing stock, said Joel Kan, associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting for the Mortgage Bankers Association.

More investors and cash in the market

Another factor contributing to rising prices: More people are buying homes with cash, a move commonly used by buyers looking for investment properties to rent or for a getaway home.

Nearly a quarter of homes purchased in October were all-cash deals, according to the NAR report. That's up from 19% a year ago. And homes bought as vacation homes or for investment properties made up 17% of homes bought in October, rising from 14% a year ago.

"Among some of the workforce, there is an ongoing trend of flexibility to work anywhere, and this has contributed to an increase in sales in some parts of the country," said Yun. "Record-high stock markets and all-time high home prices have worked to significantly raise total consumer wealth and, when coupled with extended remote work flexibility, elevated housing demand in vacation regions."

As a result of this increased financial muscle, home buyers who are financing home purchases with a mortgage and first-time home buyers continue to struggle to compete in the market. First-time buyers made up just 29% of sales in October, down from 32% a year ago.

"Any buyers who are competing to buy with mortgages, especially if they have FHA, VA mortgages which have more involved appraisal processes, may find it very difficult to compete against all cash," said Yun.

美国房屋销售有望创下 2006 年以来最好的一年

(CNN) 根据美国全国房地产经纪人协会的一份报告，尽管库存低且价格上涨，但 10 月份房屋销售小幅上涨，连续第二个月增长。

包括独栋住宅、联排别墅、公寓和合作公寓在内的现有房屋销售额环比增长 0.8%。在夏季放缓之后，9 月份销售额重新燃起，每月增长 7%。

与去年同期相比，房屋销售比 2020 年 10 月下降了 5.8%，这标志着大流行的购房激增的周期性高峰。

NAR 的首席经济学家劳伦斯·云 (Lawrence Yun) 表示，今年的销售量有望超过 600 万套，这将是自 2006 年以来的最强劲表现。

“尽管库存低且负担能力挑战日益增加，但房屋销售仍保持弹性，”Yun 说。 “通胀压力，例如快速上涨的租金和不断上涨的消费价格，可能会让一些潜在买家寻求固定、一致的抵押贷款支付保护。”

尽管如此，可供出售房屋的短缺继续推高房价，使首次购房者和低收入买家更难以负担得起房屋。

10 月份所有住房类型的现房价格中位数为 353,900 美元，比一年前上涨 13%。这标志着连续 116 个月——或超过九年半——同比增长，这是有记录以来最长的连续增长。

库存依然紧张

库存短缺继续给房地产市场带来沉重压力，而且似乎不会很快缓解。

据 NAR 报道，10 月底有 125 万套房屋可供出售，同比下降 12%，略低于 9 月。

按照目前的销售速度，市场有 2.4 个月的房屋供应量。通常，一个平衡的市场大约有 6 个月的房屋供应量。

“虽然自今年早些时候的狂热时期以来，房屋竞争有所缓解，但竞争仍然激烈，价格仍在以两位数的速度上涨，”海军联邦信贷联盟的企业经济学家罗伯特弗里克说。

弗里克说，房价上涨使低收入买家的处境尤其困难，因为高端市场有更多的可用库存。

10 月份，价格在 250,000 美元至 500,000 美元之间的房屋销量比一年前下降了 2%，因为房屋数量不足以满足需求。与此同时，价格在 500,000 美元至 750,000 美元之间的房屋销售额同比增长 18%，而价格超过 100 万美元的房屋销售额增长了 31%。

Mortgage 负责经济和行业预测的副总裁 Joel Kan 表示，这凸显了需要将更多房屋（包括现有房主和新建房屋）投放市场，以补充和补充该国老化的住房存量。银行家协会。

市场上有更多的投资者和现金

另一个导致价格上涨的因素：越来越多的人用现金购买房屋，这是寻找投资物业出租或度假屋的买家常用的举措。

根据 NAR 的报告，10 月份购买的房屋中有近四分之一是全现金交易。这比一年前的 19% 有所上升。作为度假屋或投资物业购买的房屋占 10 月份购买的房屋的 17%，高于一年前的 14%。

“在一些劳动力中，在任何地方工作都具有灵活性的持续趋势，这有助于该国某些地区的销售额增加，”云说。 “创纪录的股市和历史最高的房价显着增加了消费者的总财富，再加上远程工作的灵活性，提高了度假区的住房需求。”

由于这种财务实力的增强，通过抵押贷款为购房融资的购房者和首次购房者继续努力在市场上竞争。首次购房者仅占 10 月份销售额的 29%，低于一年前的 32%。

“任何竞相购买抵押贷款的买家，特别是如果他们拥有 FHA、VA 抵押贷款，这些抵押贷款涉及更多的评估过程，可能会发现很难与所有现金竞争，”Yun 说。