Costco、Sam's Club 和 BJ's 如何赢得大流行

纽约（美国有线电视新闻网）在大流行期间，很少有公司比美国的仓储俱乐部巨头获得了更多的优势。

在 Covid 初期，购物者涌入 Costco、BJ's 和 Sam's Club——这些被认为是“必不可少的”企业并在封锁期间保持营业——以购买杂货和卫生纸等家庭必需品。这些客户在 22 个月后仍然会来，而且许多人为他们的家庭和家庭购买的东西比危机前还要多。

数以百万计的客户首次注册成为俱乐部会员并坚持不懈，将连锁店的会员人数推至历史新高。

市场研究公司 IRI 战略分析总裁 KK Davey 表示，仓库俱乐部“在 Covid 期间获得了相当多的份额，并将继续保持下去”。 “很多会员都注册了。一旦你进入俱乐部，你就会继续购买。”

根据 IRI 的数据，俱乐部商店在 2020 年和 2021 年的市场份额分别增长了 0.5% 和 0.5%，总计约 160 亿美元。与去年相比，它们在 2021 年的销售额增长也是所有零售渠道中最快的。

在大流行期间，他们的销售额和利润激增，推高了股价。

自 2020 年 3 月以来，好市多（COST）——美国最大的俱乐部和第三大零售商，仅次于沃尔玛（WMT）和亚马逊（AMZN）——的股价上涨了约 90%。

第二大山姆会员店是沃尔玛 (WMT) 的子公司，其销售额增长速度快于沃尔玛。

BJ's (BJ) 是三家具乐部中最小的一家，其股价暴涨了 240% 左右。

但分析师表示，2022 年可能会给这些连锁店带来更多挑战。

由于价格居高不下，一些购物者可能会减少他们不经常使用的可自由支配的订阅。如果您订阅了 Amazon、Netflix (NFLX)、Apple (AAPL)、Walmart+ 和无数其他订阅服务，您真的需要每年支付 50 或 60 美元才能进入购物俱乐部吗？

批量购买

当 Covid 爆发时，许多顾客削减了他们最喜欢的第三和第四家商店，而专注于只光顾一两家。

他们减少了去商店的次数，以最大程度地减少接触病毒的可能性，但是当他们在里面时就装满了，花更多的钱。这在仓库俱乐部的手中发挥了作用，这些俱乐部专门销售大包装的番茄酱、卫生纸和清洁湿巾。

这种趋势一直持续到 2021 年。

许多人仍在远程工作或采用混合模式。这意味着与大流行之前相比，他们在杂货上的支出仍然更多，并整理了客厅、家庭办公室和后院。

根据 IRI 的数据，仓库俱乐部在 2021 年任何零售渠道商店的客户访问量增长最快。

分析师表示，会员模式还导致客户比没有会员时花费更多。沉没成本谬误通常会促使人们继续购买，以期从订阅费中获得最大收益。

山姆俱乐部首席执行官凯瑟琳麦克莱在一封电子邮件中说，俱乐部很高兴你采取这种方法：“会员购买的越多，会员资格对他们就越有价值。”

送货还是路边取货？

Covid还促使更多人在线购买。

虽然仓储俱乐部传统上并不是在线交付的首选，但这些公司在大流行之前采取了措施，以建立他们的电子商务业务和技术选择。

BJ 的 CEO Bob Eddy 在一封电子邮件中说，批发俱乐部“并不总是很方便”。 “我们已经改变了这一点。”

这三个连锁店都与 Instacart 合作，提供商店的当日杂货配送服务。 Sam's Club 推出了 Scan & Go，让会员无需排队即可扫描物品。

在大流行的早期阶段，山姆会员店和 BJ's 还为在线购买的客户增加了当日路边取货服务。

这些举措取得了成效，帮助俱乐部吸引了急于避开商店的会员，转而订购送货或路边取货。

在截至 10 月 30 日的最新季度中，BJ 的在线销售额与去年同期相比增长了 44%。 Costco 在截至 10 月 31 日的九周内上涨了 12.1%——这是最新数据。它们去年增长了 42.6%。

在截至 10 月 31 日的上一季度中，山姆会员店的电子商务销售额增长了 32%。

山姆俱乐部的首席执行官麦克莱说，山姆俱乐部发现，第一年和第二年的会员比资深会员更有可能“更多地参与数字化”。

年轻家庭和新家

仓储俱乐部模式只有在这些连锁店能够每年注册会员并说服他们续约的情况下才有效。

他们从会员费中赚钱，支付会员费的会员越多，俱乐部的价格就越低。如果没有这笔费用收入，这个概念就会瓦解。

这些公司在大流行期间锁定了新成员，其中许多是搬到郊区并购买了第一套住房的年轻家庭。

麦克莱说，山姆俱乐部没有公开披露会员人数，但他们处于公司历史新高。

她说，山姆会员店的大多数新会员都是千禧一代家庭，他们为孩子和不断增长的家庭需求大量购买。

自 Covid-19 开始以来，BJ's 增加了约 600,000 名新会员，使其会员基数超过 600 万。

“大流行导致年轻家庭从城市搬到郊区，”首席执行官埃迪说。 “我们的许多成员在组建家庭时加入。”

Costco 在大流行期间增加了超过 6 百万会员，现在拥有接近 6200 万会员。

财务主管理查德加兰蒂表示，千禧一代在 Costco 的新会员中占大多数，并补充说，他的连锁店已经回答了一些分析师的疑问，即 Costco 只是一家为年轻购物者父母开设的商店。

“多年来人们一直担心的一个问题是我们是为老年人服务的，”他说。 “但是你还能在哪里买到 8 包有机新鲜羽衣甘蓝呢？”

Gordon Haskett Research Advisors 的分析师查克格罗姆在 11 月 10 日的一份报告中表示，随着越来越多的千禧一代成为父母并在郊区购买房屋，Costco 将“看到新一波会员”进入他们的消费高峰期。

俱乐部的未来

尽管这些俱乐部在大流行期间取得了成功，但从这里开始他们的道路变得更加棘手。

随着越来越多的人返回办公室、在餐馆吃饭、去电影院并恢复大流行前的模式，他们可能会决定减少 300 美元或 400 美元的消费，去 Costco 或 Sam's。那会挤压销售。

价格上涨也可能导致一些会员让他们的会员资格失效，尤其是最近加入的会员。

随着联邦刺激措施的作用减弱，大多数商品变得更加昂贵，购物者可能被迫做出权衡。如果他们不像亚马逊 Prime 和其他会员那样频繁地使用仓库俱乐部会员资格，俱乐部可能会被削减。

IRI 的 KK Davey 说：“随着预算越来越紧，会员资格将会合理化”。

尽管如此，俱乐部表示，随着价格上涨，人们将寻求在杂货和其他东西上省钱。

BJ 的 Bob Eddy 说，低价是“他们支付会员费的原因”。 “这在当今通货膨胀的市场中变得更加重要。”

How Costco, Sam's Club and BJ's won the pandemic

New York (CNN Business)Few companies have gained more of an advantage during the pandemic than America's warehouse club giants.

During the early days of Covid, shoppers flooded into Costco, BJ's and Sam's Club — which were deemed "essential" businesses and stayed open through lockdowns — to load up on groceries and household staples such as toilet paper. Those customers are still coming 22 months later and many are buying even more stuff for their homes and families than they did before the crisis.

Millions of customers signed up for club memberships for the first time and held onto them, pushing the chains' member rolls to all-time highs.

Warehouse clubs have "gained quite a bit of share during Covid and continue to," said KK Davey, the president of strategic analytics at market research firm IRI. "Lots of members have signed up. Once you're in the club, you continue to buy."

Club stores gained 0.5% of market share in 2020 and 0.5% in 2021, adding up to around $16 billion, according to IRI data. They have also had the fastest sales growth in 2021 from last year of any retail channel.

Their sales and profits have surged during the pandemic, lifting their stock prices.

Shares of Costco (COST) — the largest club and third-biggest retailer in America behind Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN)— have increased around 90% since March of 2020.

Sam's Club, the second largest, is a subsidiary of Walmart (WMT), and its sales have increased at a faster clip than Walmart's.

BJ's, (BJ) the smallest of the three clubs, has seen its stock explode around 240%.

But 2022 may bring more challenges for these chains, say analysts.

As prices stay high, some shoppers may cut back on the discretionary subscriptions they aren't using as much. If you have an Amazon subscription, a Netflix (NFLX) subscription, an Apple (AAPL) one, Walmart+ and countless others, do you really need to pay 50 or 60 bucks a year just to step foot in a shopping club?

Buying in bulk

When the Covid outbreak started, many customers cut out their third and fourth favorite stores and focused on visiting only one or two.

They made fewer trips to stores to minimize potential exposure to the virus, but loaded up when they were inside and spent more. This played right into the hands of warehouse clubs, which specialize in selling giant packages of ketchup, toilet paper and cleaning wipes.

This trend has continued into 2021.

Many people are still working remotely or are in a hybrid model. That means they're still spending more on groceries than they were before the pandemic and sprucing up their living rooms, home offices and backyards.

Warehouse clubs had the highest growth of customer visits to stores of any retail channel in 2021, according to IRI data.

The membership model also leads customers to spend more than they would without one, say analysts. A sunk-cost fallacy often drives people to keep buying to try to get the most bang for their subscription fees.

Clubs are more than happy you take that approach: "The more members buy, the more valuable the membership is to them," Sam's Club CEO Kathryn McLay said in an email.

Delivery or curbside pickup?

Covid also pushed more people to buy online.

While warehouse clubs have not traditionally been a top choice for online delivery, the companies took steps before the pandemic to build out their e-commerce businesses and technology options.

Wholesale clubs "haven't always been convenient," BJ's CEO Bob Eddy said in an email. "We have changed that."

All three chains partnered with Instacart to offer same-day grocery delivery from stores. Sam's Club launched Scan & Go, which allows members to scan items without waiting in line.

In the early stages of the pandemic, Sam's Club and BJ's also added same-day curbside pickup for customers buying online.

These moves have paid off, helping clubs draw members eager to avoid stores and instead order for delivery or curbside pickup.

BJ's online sales increased 44% during its latest quarter ending October 30 from the same stretch a year ago. Costco's increased 12.1% during the nine weeks ending October 31 — its latest figures. They boomed 42.6% last year.

Sam's Club's e-commerce sales grew 32% during its previous quarter ending October 31.

Sam's Club is finding that first and second-year members are likelier "to be more digitally engaged" than veteran members, CEO McLay said.

Young families and new homes

The warehouse club model only works if these chains can sign up members every year and convince them to renew.

They make money off membership dues, and the more members who pay them, the lower the clubs can drive prices. Without that fee income, the concept unravels.

The companies have locked in new members during the pandemic, many of them younger families who moved to the suburbs and purchased their first homes.

Sam's Club does not publicly disclose membership numbers, but they are at a all-time company highs, McClay said.

The majority of new members at Sam's Club are Millennial families, who buy in bulk for their kids and growing household needs, she said.

BJ's has added around 600,000 new members since Covid-19 began, bringing its membership base to more than 6 million.

"The pandemic has led to younger families moving out of cities to the suburbs," said CEO Eddy. "Many of our members join when they start a family."

Costco has added more than 6 milliolan members during the pandemic and now has close to 62 million members.

Millennials make up the majority of new members at Costco, said finance chief Richard Galanti, adding that his chain has answered some analysts' doubts that Costco was only a store for young shoppers' parents.

"One of the concerns people have had over the years is that we're for old people," he said. "But where else can you get an 8-pack of organic fresh kale?"

As more Millennials become parents and buy homes in the suburbs, Costco will "see a new wave of members" entering their peak spending years, Chuck Grom, an analyst at Gordon Haskett Research Advisors, said in a November 10 report upgrading Costco's stock.

The future of clubs

Despite these clubs' success during the pandemic, their path gets trickier from here.

As more people return to offices, eat out at restaurants, go to movie theaters and resume pre-pandemic patterns, they may decide to cut back on $300 or $400 runs to Costco or Sam's. That would squeeze sales.

Rising prices may also lead some members to let their memberships lapse, especially ones who recently joined.

As the help of federal stimulus fades and most goods get costlier, shoppers may be forced to make trade-offs. If they're not using their warehouse club memberships as frequently as Amazon Prime and other ones, clubs may get cut.

"As budgets get tighter, there will be a rationalizing" of memberships, said KK Davey from IRI.

Still, the clubs say people will be looking to save money on groceries and other stuff as prices rise.

Low prices are "why they pay the membership fee," BJ's Bob Eddy said. "That becomes even more relevant in today's inflationary market."