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市场可能忽略了 Omicron 停产的风险

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  发表于 Dec 18, 2021 02:54:21 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |倒序浏览 |阅读模式
纽约 (CNN Business) 华尔街对明年的经济状况感到紧张。

最大的担忧是通胀是否会过热,迫使美联储介入,通过更多的加息来阻止物价上涨。

道指在周五午盘交易中下跌近 375 点,跌幅约为 1%,因为人们越来越担心美联储可能会因过于激进的紧缩政策而导致经济放缓。这种担忧是全球性的:各地的投资者都在担心通货膨胀以及央行可能会跟随英格兰银行的步伐并很快提高自己的利率。

但是,如果投资者害怕错误的怪物怎么办?

Covid-19 Omicron 变体在全球范围内的兴起增加了国家……或私营企业……可能不得不发布新的封锁措施的可能性。

为应对 Omicron 的威胁,伦敦的餐馆和酒吧正在关闭。纽约市的一些百老汇演出已被取消。

从苹果和福特到拼车公司 Lyft 和投资银行杰富瑞等公司最近都宣布了推迟员工重返办公室的计划。更多的企业可能会效仿。

这可能尚未计入更广泛的股票市场。

标准普尔 500 指数今年上涨了 23%,距离历史高点仅略高于 1%。投资者并不是为了躲避山丘而奔跑。

但是,市场的某些部分受到的打击比其他部分要大。科技股纳斯达克指数较历史高位下跌 7%,接近 10% 的回调状态。但即使在最近下跌之后,纳斯达克指数在 2021 年仍上涨 17%,比历史高点低 6%。

航空公司和其他休闲和酒店类股最近也下跌,表明投资者对 Omicron 对旅行的影响持谨慎态度。联合航空公司 (UAL) 的股价在过去一周下跌了 9% 以上。嘉年华 (CCL)、万豪 (MAR) Expedia (EXPE) 最近也出现了大幅下跌。

就其价值而言,与 Covid 2020 3 月的方式关闭经济相比,投资者似乎仍然对美联储将要采取的行动更加紧张。数百万美国人现在接种了疫苗并获得了帮助,这一事实可能有所帮助。

但消费者价格的飙升更多的是市场的痴迷。为此,超过 60% 对本记者发布的非正式 Twitter 民意调查做出回应的人表示,他们认为通胀是 2022 年市场的最大风险,而只有 27% 的人表示 Omicron Covid。

The market may be ignoring risk of Omicron shutdowns

New York (CNN Business)Wall Street is getting nervous about what will happen to the economy next year.

The big concern is whether inflation will run too hot, forcing the Federal Reserve to step in with more rate hikes to stop rising prices in their tracks.

The Dow fell nearly 375 points Friday in midday trading, about 1%, as fears grew that the Fed could potentially cause an economic slowdown by tightening too aggressively. Such concerns are global: Investors everywhere are worrying about inflation and the likelihood central banks will follow the Bank of England's lead and soon raise their own interest rates.

But what if investors are scared of the wrong bogeyman?

The rise of the Omicron variant of Covid-19 around the globe is raising the possibility that countries...or private businesses...may have to issue new lockdowns.

Restaurants and pubs in London are closing in response to the Omicron threat. Some Broadway shows in New York City have been canceled.

And companies ranging from Apple and Ford to ridesharing firm Lyft and investment bank Jefferies have recently announced plans to delay workers' return to the office. More businesses are likely to follow suit.

This might not be priced into the broader stock market just yet.

The S&P 500 is up 23% this year and is just a little more than 1% from its record high. Investors aren't exactly running for the hills and hiding.

But there are pockets of the market that are getting hit harder than others. The tech stock heavy Nasdaq has fallen 7% from its record high, putting it closer to 10% correction status. But even after its recent drop, the Nasdaq is still up 17% in 2021, which is 6% below the record high.

Airlines and other leisure and hospitality stocks have fallen recently, too, an indication that investors are wary of Omicron's impact on travel. United Airlines (UAL) shares have plummeted more than 9% in the past week. Carnival (CCL), Marriott (MAR) and Expedia (EXPE) have all posted big drops lately, too.

For what it's worth, investors still seem to be more nervous about what the Fed is going to do than Covid shutting down the economy the way it did in March 2020. The fact that millions of Americans are now vaccinated and boosted may be helping.

But the spike in consumer prices is still more of a market obsession. To that end, more than 60% of those who responded to an informal Twitter poll posted by this reporter indicated that they thought inflation was the biggest risk for markets in 2022 compared to just 27% saying Omicron and Covid.

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