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特朗普到底会不会参选2024年的美国总统大选?

  发表于 Dec 9, 2021 02:42:16 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
唐纳德特朗普对 2024 年大选的观望态度甚至在下一届共和党总统初选开始之前就被冻结了。

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当每个传闻中的 2024 年候选人都在应对另一次特朗普竞选的不确定性时——决定他们是应该公开承认自己的总统抱负还是保持低调直到他做出决定——他们的潜在对手正在密切关注他们表现出的忠诚度前总统。

一些可能的 2024 年竞争者正在发起竞选活动——聘请值得信赖的顾问、会见捐助者并访问所有重要的主要州,尽管他们知道如果前总统参加竞选,这一切都将一事无成。例如,周三,前副总统迈克·彭斯将前往新罕布什尔州,在州共和党人的筹款活动中与共和党捐助者交流,并在保守派激进主义组织遗产行动组织的演讲中批评拜登政府。值得注意的是,彭斯并未表示他将在下一届总统初选中避免挑战他的前任老板。

其他有传言的共和党候选人发表了此类声明,遭到了党内的批评。

前新泽西州州长克里斯克里斯蒂建议共和党选民应该立即拒绝任何将他们的决定与特朗普联系在一起的传闻候选人。

“如果你说你在顺从某人,那是软弱和优柔寡断的真实表现,”他在五月份说。

少数可能成为 2024 年共和党候选人的人已经做出了这样的承诺,或者强烈暗示他们不会在初选中挑战特朗普。前南卡罗来纳州州长 Nikki Haley 4 月份以最明确的措辞宣布了这一点,当时她告诉记者,“如果特朗普总统参选,她就不会参选”。黑莉的一位女发言人拒绝就她的立场是否发生转变发表评论。

与此同时,南达科他州州长 Kristi Noem 和少数共和党参议员已经暗示他们支持特朗普再次竞选的前景,或者相信如果他竞选,共和党总统候选人提名就是他的。

“如果唐纳德特朗普将在 2024 年竞选总统,他将成为共和党候选人。当然,我会支持他,”参议员马克卢比奥上周告诉 WPTV。周五,佛罗里达州参议员里克斯科特在接受福克斯商业采访时表示,特朗普“应该再做一次”。

密苏里州的 Sens. Josh Hawley 和南卡罗来纳州的 Tim Scott 是另外两名被谈论可能成为 2024 年共和党竞争者的参议员,他们也表示支持未来的特朗普竞选。

即使她在 7 月前往爱荷华州——表明她自己有兴趣建立可能使她在 2024 年受益的关系——诺姆在得梅因举行的家庭领导峰会上告诉保守派活动家,她“指望[特朗普]竞选”。

一位未公开表示将服从前总统的潜在共和党候选人的助手告诉美国有线电视新闻网,“除非基地发生戏剧性变化,否则提名是唐纳德特朗普的,与他竞争将是自杀式任务。”然而,助手继续说,“我们永远不会承认这一点。它会关闭我们可能需要的选民。”

那些对特朗普表现出尊重的候选人——甚至在共和党初选开始之前就向他让步——现在正受到他的盟友的谩骂。

“你要么是你自己,要么不是你自己,当你在玩反射性政治时,很难去基地说你是一名战士,”前特朗普竞选助手布莱恩兰扎说,他仍然与美国政府关系密切。前总统。

“这是一个我们将不得不战斗和废弃的时代,如果前总统特朗普不竞选,我们最不需要的就是在战斗开始之前就退出的人,”兰扎补充道。

保持他们的卡片关闭

在一个完全不同的类别中,潜在的共和党候选人有意避免讨论 2024 年,或者在他们讨论过的时候没有表现出对特朗普的顺从。

例如,德克萨斯州参议员特德克鲁兹上个月告诉哥伦比亚广播公司新闻“面对国家”,特朗普作为 2024 年的候选人“将非常非常强大”,但同时吹嘘他“非常接近”击败前总统在 2016 年共和党总统初选中,并有可能在 2024 年成为共和党的候选人。

“我排在第二位。亚军成为下一位提名者的历史由来已久,”克鲁兹说。

佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯 (Ron DeSantis) 在共和党捐助者中被广泛讨论为 2024 年可能的候选人,但尚未排除在初选中挑战特朗普的可能性——这让这位前总统非常懊恼。正如美国有线电视新闻网先前报道的那样,特朗普最近向盟友抱怨说,佛罗里达州州长未能为他迅速崛起为共和党明星而给予足够的信任,并且特别恼火的是,如果前总统发起他的竞选,德桑蒂斯不会公开拒绝 2024 年的竞选。自己的竞选活动。

但据传,德桑蒂斯并不是唯一一个有望避开 2024 年喋喋不休的共和党人。被提及为可能候选人的另外两名共和党人——德克萨斯州州长格雷格·阿博特和阿肯色州参议员汤姆·科顿——也拒绝沉迷于对他们的总统野心的猜测,也拒绝在包括特朗普在内的初选中表明立场。

“我们会看看会发生什么。你对我了解的一件事,我一步一个脚印,”上个月,当被问及他是否考虑参加总统竞选时,阿博特告诉 NBC 当地的一家分支机构。一位雅培顾问告诉美国有线电视新闻网,鉴于雅培尚未奠定基础或前往像这样的早期初选州,这位正在竞选 2022 年连任的得克萨斯州州长如果要发起白宫竞选,他将面临严重的追赶。其他共和党总统候选人。这位顾问还承认,任何亲特朗普的共和党人几乎不可能在共和党初选中比前总统本人更具竞争力。

“在大约 30 名在场思考或梦想的人中,诚实的评估是,如果你喜欢特朗普的政策,如果他也参与竞争,将很难与选民取得突破。在比赛中,”雅培顾问说。

与此同时,尽管今年多次前往爱荷华州和新罕布什尔州,但科顿一再拒绝有关他 2024 年雄心的问题。到目前为止,他还拒绝评论特朗普不断取笑另一场总统竞选——拒绝像其他共和党参议员那样说如果他想要提名就是他的提名,或者暗示如果他愿意,他们将放弃自己的竞选活动Cotton 女发言人 Caroline Tabler 拒绝对这个故事发表评论。

特朗普不是每个人的因素

在对 2024 年进行猜测的数十名共和党人中,只有六名共和党人明确表示,在他们权衡自己的总统竞选时,特朗普不会成为他们决定的一个因素。虽然这一组中的两个名字——怀俄明州众议员利兹·切尼和马里兰州州长拉里·霍根——可能会以“永不特朗普”的候选人身份参加竞选,这意味着他们与前总统竞选的决定将比那些希望竞选的共和党人更容易为了保持他的恩宠,其他四人面临着更艰难的决定。尽管如此,他们都没有说特朗普的下一步行动将决定他们如何对待 2024 年的总统初选。

切尼曾表示,她愿意“不惜一切代价”阻止特朗普再次进入椭圆形办公室,这可能表明她会在共和党初选中让他参加,而霍根在 9 月份告诉 Politico,特朗普的候选资格“肯定会”不会阻止我”,如果他决定竞选总统。

同样,新罕布什尔州州长克里斯·苏努努 (Chris Sununu) 2020 年支持特朗普,但在过去一年一直批评前总统的选举舞弊指控,上个月在共和党州长协会年会上对记者表示,他对竞选总统持开放态度。并将决定“基于我能提供什么,而不是基于其他人的想法”。

也许最令人惊讶的是两位长期支持特朗普的人所采取的姿态。前副总统迈克·彭斯继续在公开演讲中称赞特朗普,尽管他们对他对 2020 年选举结果的验证感到不满,但他明显拒绝表示他不会在 2024 年挑战他的前任老板。彭斯的助手也很快注意到特朗普不会成为他决定的一个因素。

“如果你了解彭斯,你就会知道他们总是试图辨别他们被召唤去哪里服务。而且我认为这不取决于还有谁参加或不参加比赛,”彭斯的助手和前任参谋长马克肖特上周告诉大西洋。

前国务卿迈克·蓬佩奥 (Mike Pompeo) 一直在为 2024 年的共和党捐助者测量体温,并长途跋涉前往爱荷华州和新罕布什尔州,他也拒绝在初选中与特朗普竞争。今年早些时候,在接受福克斯新闻主持人肖恩·汉尼提 (Sean Hannity) 采访时,当被问及如果特朗普不竞选他是否会参选时,蓬佩奥说他“总是准备好打一场”。他没有澄清这种竞争力是否会保留在包括特朗普在内的初选中。

Won't-run-if-Trump-runs question leads to waiting game for likely 2024 candidates

Donald Trump's wait-and-see approach to the 2024 election has frozen the next Republican presidential primary before it's even begun.

As each rumored 2024 candidate navigates the uncertainty of another Trump bid -- deciding if they should publicly acknowledge their presidential ambitions or keep their head down until he makes a decision -- their potential opponents are paying close attention to the degree of loyalty they show the former President.

Some likely 2024 contenders are creating campaigns-in-waiting hiring trusted advisers, meeting with donors and visiting all-important primary states despite knowing it could all be for nothing if the former President enters the race. On Wednesday, for instance, former Vice President Mike Pence is set to travel to New Hampshire to mingle with GOP donors at a fundraiser for state Republicans and critique the Biden administration in a speech hosted by conservative activism group Heritage Action. Notably, Pence has not said he would refrain from challenging his former boss in the next presidential primary.

Other rumored Republican hopefuls who have made such declarations have drawn criticism from within the party.

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has suggested GOP voters should immediately discount any rumored candidate who tethers their decision to Trump.

"If you're saying you're deferring to someone, that's a real sign of both weakness and indecision," he said in May.

A handful of would-be 2024 GOP contenders have already made such pledges or strongly hinted that they would not challenge Trump in a primary. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley declared so in the clearest terms back in April, telling reporters at the time that she "would not run if President Trump ran." A Haley spokeswoman declined to comment for this story on whether her position has shifted at all.

Meanwhile, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem and a handful of Republican senators have intimated as much by saying they support the prospect of another Trump campaign or believe the GOP presidential nomination is his if he does run.

"If Donald Trump is going to run for president in 2024, he'll be the Republican nominee. Of course, I would support him in that," Sen. Marco Rubio told WPTV last week. On Friday, fellow Florida Sen. Rick Scott said in a Fox Business interview that Trump "ought to do it again."

Sens. Josh Hawley of Missouri and Tim Scott of South Carolina, two other senators who have been talked about as possible 2024 GOP contenders, have also expressed support of a future Trump bid.

And even as she traveled to Iowa in July -- signaling her own interest in building relationships that could benefit her in 2024 -- Noem told conservative activists at the Family Leadership Summit in Des Moines that she was "counting on [Trump] running."

One aide to a prospective Republican candidate who has not publicly said he would defer to the former President told CNN that "unless there's a dramatic shift in the base, the nomination is Donald Trump's and it would be a suicide mission to run against him." And yet, the aide continued, "We aren't ever going to admit that. It turns off voters we might need down the road."

Candidates who have shown deference to Trump -- yielding to him before the GOP primary has even begun -- are now being ribbed by his allies.

"You either are your own person or not and when you're playing reflexive politics, it's kind of hard to then go to the base and say you're a fighter," said former Trump campaign aide Bryan Lanza, who remains close to the ex-President.

"This is an era where we're going to have to fight and scrap and the last thing we need if former President Trump doesn't run is someone who bows out before the fight even starts," Lanza added.

Keeping their cards close

In an entirely different category are prospective Republican candidates who have purposely refrained from discussing 2024 or stopped short of showing submissiveness to Trump when they have.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, for instance, told CBS News' Face the Nation last month that Trump "would be very, very formidable," as a candidate in 2024, but simultaneously boasted that he "came incredibly close" to beating the former President in the 2016 GOP presidential primary and could be in a position to become the Republican Party's nominee in 2024.

"I came in second. There's a long history of runners-up being the next nominee," Cruz said.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has been widely discussed among GOP donors as a possible 2024 candidate, has yet to rule out challenging Trump in a primary much to the former President's chagrin. As previously reported by CNN, Trump has recently complained to allies that the Florida governor has failed to pay him enough credit for his meteoric rise to Republican stardom and is especially annoyed that DeSantis won't publicly reject a 2024 bid if the former president launches his own campaign.

But DeSantis isn't the only rumored Republican hopeful to dodge the 2024 chatter. Two other Republicans who have been mentioned as possible candidates -- Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton -- have also refused to indulge speculation about their presidential ambitions or stake out a position on competing in a primary that includes Trump.

"We'll see what happens. One thing you know about me, I take one step at a time," Abbott told a local NBC affiliate last month when asked if he was considering a presidential run. An Abbott adviser told CNN that the Texas governor, who is running for reelection in 2022, would have serious catching up to do if he were to launch a White House bid given that Abbott has not been laying the groundwork or traveling to early primary states like other GOP presidential aspirants. The same adviser also acknowledged the virtual impossibility that any pro-Trump Republican would prove more competitive in a GOP primary against Trump than the former president himself.

"Of the 30 or so people who are out there thinking about this or dreaming about it, it's an honest assessment to say that if you like the Trump brand of policies, it will be very difficult to break through with voters if he is also competing in the race," the Abbott adviser said.

Cotton, meanwhile, has repeatedly rebuffed questions about his 2024 ambitions, despite making multiple trips to Iowa and New Hampshire this year. So far, he has also refused to comment on Trump's constant teasing of another presidential run -- declining to go as far as other GOP senators who have said the nomination is his if he wants it or suggesting they would forgo campaigns of their own if he jumps in. Cotton spokeswoman Caroline Tabler declined to comment for this story.

Trump isn't a factor for everyone

Only six Republicans among the dozens who have drawn 2024 speculation have plainly stated that Trump will not be a factor in their decision as they weigh presidential bids of their own. While two of the names in this group -- Wyoming Congresswoman Liz Cheney and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan -- would likely enter the race as Never Trump candidates, meaning their decision to run against the former President would be easier than that of Republicans who wish to remain in his good graces, the other four face a tougher decision. Still, none of them have said that Trump's next move would determine how they approach the 2024 presidential primary.

Cheney has said she is willing to do "whatever it takes" to prevent Trump from making it to the Oval Office again, presumably indicating that she would take him on in a Republican primary, while Hogan told Politico in September that a Trump candidacy "certainly wouldn't stop me" if he decides to run for president.

Similarly, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, who supported Trump in 2020 but has been critical of the former President's election fraud claims over the past year, told reporters at the Republican Governors' Association annual conference last month that he is open to running for president and will decide "based on what I can deliver, not based on what anyone else is thinking."

Perhaps most surprising is the posture two longtime Trump loyalists have adopted. Former Vice President Mike Pence, who continues to compliment Trump in public speeches despite their falling out over his verification of the 2020 election results, has notably declined to say he won't challenge his former boss in 2024. Pence aides are also quick to note that Trump will not be a factor in his decision.

"If you know the Pences, you know they'll always try to discern where they're being called to serve. And I don't think that is dependent on who else is in or not in the race," Pence aide and former chief of staff Marc Short told The Atlantic last week.

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who has been taking the temperature of GOP donors on a 2024 bid and making the trek to Iowa and New Hampshire, has also declined to weigh in on running against Trump in a primary. In an interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity earlier this year, Pompeo said he's "always up for a good fight" when asked if he would run if Trump doesn't. He did not clarify if that competitiveness would remain in a primary that includes Trump.

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