高昂的房价可能会促使房利美和房地美支持近 100 万美元的贷款

Home prices all over the country have seen stratospheric increases within the past year, as demand for homes spiked and inventory tanked.

But higher prices are expected to push the limits of conforming loans to what experts anticipate may be record increases in 2022, with the maximum loan limit at nearly $1 million for high-cost areas. The expected increases were reported by the Wall Street Journal Tuesday, and industry publications have been forecasting the changes, too.

Mortgages above the "conforming" loan limits imposed by federal mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are considered "non-conforming" or "jumbo" mortgages, and typically come with higher interest rates.

The increase is great news for homebuyers, especially those in high-cost areas who were being pushed into a jumbo mortgage even for a modest home, said Melissa Cohn, Regional Vice President at William Raveis Mortgage. "There are so many benefits to having a conforming loan, increasing the loan limits will be huge."

But some analysts are concerned that increasing the limits to nearly $1 million may mean the government is playing too big a role in supporting high housing prices.

What are conforming loan limits?

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, which back about half of all US mortgages, are not lenders, but they buy loans from lenders and sell them to investors. That makes those loans cheaper for lenders, which in turn usually leads them to offer consumers lower interest rates, among other benefits.

By categorizing higher-balance loans as conforming, more homebuyers can qualify for loans that are typically less expensive, require smaller down payments and allow lower credit scores. Jumbo loans are more expensive and harder to qualify for because of the higher risk they carry.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees the two mortgage giants, is expected to announce the new conforming loan limits at the end of November. But the formula for boosting the limits each year looks at how much home prices have grown during the year -- and in 2021, it's been a lot.

The baseline conforming loan maximum is currently $548,250. That ranges up to a top amount for conforming loans of $822,375 in high-cost areas like San Francisco and Silicon Valley, New York City and most suburban counties around it, and Washington, DC, and its surrounding suburbs. Of the 3,000 counties in the US, there are roughly 100 that meet the highest cost threshold, in which 115% of the local median home value exceeds the baseline conforming loan limit.

Conforming loan limits are adjusted each year to reflect the change in the average US home price. The law establishes the maximum loan limit in high-cost areas as a multiple of the area's median home value, up to a maximum of 150% of the baseline loan limit.

Last year, home prices increased 7.42%, on average, between the third quarters of 2019 and 2020, according to the FHFA House Price Index. As a result, the baseline maximum conforming loan limit in 2021 increased by the same amount. But this year, home prices are expected to have grown a lot more.

The most recent numbers from the FHFA's House Price Index in August shows that prices were up 18.5% from a year ago. By that measure, the baseline conforming loan limit would be roughly $650,000 and the loan limit in some high-cost areas, at 150% of the baseline, would be around $975,000. But specifics have yet to be announced.

Some lenders are getting ahead of the announcement and already adjusting what they are offering, including United Wholesale Mortgage and Homebridge Wholesale, which are increasing the maximum conforming home loan limit to $625,000.

'It is a big bump'

The median price of a home was $363,700 nationally in the third quarter, up 16% from a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors. Home prices rose in nearly all -- 99% -- of the 183 markets tracked by NAR in the third quarter, with double-digit price increases seen in 78% of the markets.

These price jumps have made it harder to finance purchases for many homebuyers. And while Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have expanded the mortgage underwriting process for first-time homebuyers by including rental payments in the mortgage credit evaluation process, many other homebuyers can benefit from the updated loan limits, said Cohn.

"It is a big bump," Cohn said. "But it would make conforming loans possible for a lot of people who never had access before. Many people in New York City never had the opportunity to take advantage of the benefits of conforming loans."

In addition to requiring a lower down payment and lower credit scores, conforming loans allow for a higher debt-to-income ratio, parents as cosigners and other benefits.

And for the self-employed, conforming loans allow more flexibility in income requirements.

"That will be especially important next year for the many people who suffered as self-employed business people during the pandemic and saw their income restored in 2021," said Cohn. "If they want to buy in 2022, they can get a waiver to only provide the most recent year's tax return."

Concerns about the loan limits

But not everyone is happy about the increasing limits expected for conforming loans.

"Approaching a $1 million loan limit highlights the need for Congress and the administration to think hard about how much support taxpayers should provide the mortgage market," said Ed DeMarco, president of the Housing Policy Council, an industry group focused on housing finance.

He said that as home prices are rising faster than incomes, rising loan limits allow taxpayers to back mortgages to higher-income households.

"Taxpayer backing of mortgage securities results in slightly lower mortgage rates," he said. "This encourages people to buy more expensive homes and it feeds the runup in house prices, exacerbating the affordability challenges we face in today's supply-constrained marketplace."

While the increase in the loan limits happens automatically based on a formula, the FHFA has the discretion to put in place a smaller increase or even to freeze or reduce the limit, DeMarco said.

"Providing such mortgages with government-backed financing drives up house prices and crowds out private financing," he said.

高昂的房价可能会促使房利美和房地美支持近 100 万美元的贷款

由于房屋需求激增和库存下降，全国各地的房价在过去一年中出现了大幅上涨。

但预计更高的价格将使合格贷款的上限达到专家预期的 2022 年可能会创纪录的增长，高成本地区的最高贷款限额接近 100 万美元。华尔街日报周二报道了预期的增长，行业出版物也一直在预测这些变化。

高于联邦抵押贷款巨头房利美和房地美施加的“合格”贷款限额的抵押贷款被视为“不合格”或“巨额”抵押贷款，通常利率更高。

William Raveis Mortgage 的区域副总裁 Melissa Cohn 表示，这一增长对购房者来说是个好消息，尤其是那些住在高成本地区的人，即使是为了买一套普通的房子，他们也被迫承担巨额抵押贷款。 “拥有合格贷款有很多好处，提高贷款限额将是巨大的。”

但一些分析师担心，将限额提高到近 100 万美元可能意味着政府在支持高房价方面发挥了太大作用。

什么是合规贷款限额？

房地美 (Freddie Mac) 和房利美 (Fannie Mae) 支持大约一半的美国抵押贷款，它们不是贷方，但他们从贷方购买贷款并将其出售给投资者。这使得这些贷款对贷方来说更便宜，这反过来通常会导致他们为消费者提供更低的利率以及其他好处。

通过将高余额贷款归类为合规贷款，更多的购房者可以获得通常更便宜、需要更少首付并允许较低信用评分的贷款。巨额贷款更昂贵，更难获得资格，因为它们承担的风险更高。

监管这两家抵押贷款巨头的联邦住房金融局预计将在 11 月底宣布新的符合条件的贷款限额。但是，每年提高限额的公式着眼于一年中房价上涨了多少——而在 2021 年，涨幅很大。

符合基准的贷款最高限额目前为 548,250 美元。在旧金山和硅谷、纽约市及其周边的大多数郊区县、华盛顿特区及其周边郊区等高成本地区，最高可达 822,375 美元的合格贷款。在美国的 3,000 个县中，大约有 100 个县达到了最高成本门槛，其中 115% 的当地房屋价值中值超过了基准贷款限额。

每年都会调整合规贷款限额，以反映美国平均房价的变化。法律将高成本地区的最高贷款限额规定为该地区房屋中值的倍数，最高可达基准贷款限额的 150%。

根据 FHFA 房价指数，去年，在 2019 年第三季度至 2020 年第三季度之间，房价平均上涨了 7.42%。因此，2021年的基准最高符合贷款限额增加了相同的数额。但今年，房价预计会上涨更多。

FHFA 8 月份房价指数的最新数据显示，房价比一年前上涨了 18.5%。按照这个衡量标准，符合基准的贷款限额约为 650,000 美元，一些高成本地区的贷款限额为基准的 150%，约为 975,000 美元。但具体细节尚未公布。

一些贷方提前宣布并已经调整了他们提供的产品，包括 United Wholesale Mortgage 和 Homebridge Wholesale，它们将符合条件的房屋贷款上限提高到 625,000 美元。

'这是一个很大的冲击'

根据全国房地产经纪人协会的数据，第三季度全国房屋的中位数价格为 363,700 美元，同比上涨 16%。在第三季度 NAR 追踪的 183 个市场中，几乎所有市场（99%）的房价都上涨了，其中 78% 的市场出现了两位数的价格上涨。

这些价格上涨使许多购房者更难为购买提供资金。科恩说，虽然房地美和房利美通过在抵押贷款信用评估过程中包括租金支付，扩大了首次购房者的抵押贷款承销流程，但许多其他购房者可以从更新的贷款限额中受益。

“这是一个很大的冲击，”科恩说。 “但这将使许多以前从未获得过合格贷款的人成为可能。纽约市的许多人从未有机会利用合格贷款的好处。”

除了要求较低的首付和较低的信用评分外，合规贷款还允许更高的债务收入比、父母作为共同签署人和其他好处。

而对于个体经营者来说，合规贷款允许在收入要求上有更大的灵活性。

科恩说：“对于在大流行期间作为个体经营者而受苦并在 2021 年恢复收入的许多人来说，明年这将尤其重要。” “如果他们想在 2022 年购买，他们可以获得豁免，只提供最近一年的纳税申报表。”

对贷款限额的担忧

但并不是每个人都对合格贷款的预期限额增加感到高兴。

“接近 100 万美元的贷款限额凸显了国会和政府需要认真考虑纳税人应该为抵押贷款市场提供多少支持，”专注于住房融资的行业组织住房政策委员会主席埃德德马科说。

他说，由于房价上涨速度快于收入，不断提高的贷款限额使纳税人能够为高收入家庭提供抵押贷款。

“纳税人对抵押贷款证券的支持导致抵押贷款利率略有下降，”他说。 “这鼓励人们购买更昂贵的房屋，并助长房价上涨，加剧了我们在当今供应受限的市场中面临的负担能力挑战。”

DeMarco 说，虽然贷款限额的增加是根据公式自动发生的，但 FHFA 可以酌情决定是否增加甚至冻结或减少限额。

“以政府支持的融资提供此类抵押贷款会推高房价并排挤私人融资，”他说。