大流行已过去
20 多个月，美国就业市场已达到一个里程碑。
发生了什么：经过季节性调整后，上周每周申领失业救济金人数降至 199,000 人，为 1969 年以来的最低水平。他们在 2020 年 4 月达到了 615 万人的峰值。
那么，这是否意味着就业条件恢复正常？不完全的。
PNC 首席经济学家 Gus Faucher 在给客户的一份报告中说：“尽管 [失业] 申请的大幅下降当然是受欢迎的，但这并不表明劳动力市场出现了戏剧性的转变。” “索赔非常不稳定，尤其是在假期前后。”
索赔如此之低的原因也可能与劳动力市场的持续扭曲有关。
Bleakley 咨询集团首席投资官彼得·布克瓦 (Peter Boockvar) 表示：“由于劳动力短缺，雇主对员工的控制一直很严格，因此索赔一直呈下降趋势。”
请记住：对工人的需求很高，但积极寻找工作的人数却有所下降。 9月份，自愿离职人数升至440万人，创历史新高。
将于本周公布的美国 11 月就业报告将受到密切关注，尤其是在央行官员权衡下一步行动时。
Refinitiv 调查的经济学家预计会有更多好消息。他们预测经济增加了 563,000 个职位，高于 10 月份的 531,000 个。
失业率预计将降至 4.5%。 2020 年 2 月为 3.5%。
这可能会给美联储更多的空间来取消刺激措施，因为它试图在不危及就业复苏的情况下抑制通胀。
在周四发布的一份研究报告中，高盛的策略师预测，美联储将选择加快缩减资产购买的速度。他们认为央行将在 12 月宣布将从 1 月开始每月减少 300 亿美元的债券购买。
这将允许央行考虑加息，它表示只有在退出完成后才会这样做，最快在 3 月份。不过，高盛预计美联储将等到 6 月，“届时将有一些额外的就业报告可用”。
油价暴跌后所有人都在关注欧佩克
石油价格在一个月内下跌了 15% 以上。美国、中国、印度、日本、韩国和英国协调释放数百万桶的储备，帮助推动了这一进程。
欧洲为应对 Covid-19 激增而实施的新限制使价格进一步走低，但上周出现了一种新的、可能更具传播性的变种将其推向了边缘——美国石油周五交易价格低于每桶 70 美元，低于 85 美元/桶。十月下旬。
接下来会发生什么可能取决于石油输出国组织及其主要盟友。
《华尔街日报》已经报道称，欧佩克和俄罗斯可能会因美国和其他主要石油消费国释放储备而停止增产。
该集团每月每天增加 40 万桶。白宫希望欧佩克和俄罗斯更快地采取行动以满足不断增长的需求，但包括沙特阿拉伯在内的产油国坚守阵地，担心今年冬天持续的 Covid-19 大流行可能带来的风险。
分析师已经在猜测，欧洲的新冠疫情将鼓励欧佩克和俄罗斯在周三和周四的会议上坚持逐步增加供应。周五的价格暴跌现在引出了一个问题：他们会减产吗？
OANDA 高级市场分析师 Craig Erlam 指出，欧佩克和俄罗斯可能很快就会被迫采取行动。 “[本周] 可能来得太早，但另一场大爆发可能会让他们急刹车。”
The job market is looking way better. It's still playing catch-up
London (CNN Business)More than 20 months into the pandemic, the US job market has reached a milestone.
What's happening: Weekly claims for unemployment benefits fell to 199,000 last week after seasonal adjustments, their lowest level since 1969. They hit a peak of 6.15 million in April 2020.
So, does that mean employment conditions are back to normal? Not quite.
"Although the plunge in [unemployment] claims was certainly welcome, it does not indicate a dramatic turn in the labor market," PNC chief economist Gus Faucher said in a note to clients. "Claims are highly volatile, especially around holidays."
The reason claims are so low may also have to do with ongoing distortions in the labor market.
"Claims have been trending down as employers keep a tight hold on to their employees because of the labor shortages," observed Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group.
Remember: Demand for workers is high, but the number of people actively seeking work has slipped. In September, the number of people who voluntarily quit their jobs rose to a record high 4.4 million.
The US jobs report for November, due this week, will be watched closely, especially as central bankers weigh their next steps.
Economists polled by Refinitiv expect more good news. They predict that the economy added 563,000 positions, up from 531,000 in October.
The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.5%. It was at 3.5% in February 2020.
That could give the Federal Reserve more latitude to roll back stimulus measures as it tries to keep a lid on inflation without jeopardizing the jobs comeback.
In a research note published Thursday, strategists at Goldman Sachs forecast that the Fed would opt to speed up the rate at which it tapers asset purchases. They think the central bank will announce in December that it will reduce bond buying by $30 billion per month starting in January.
That would allow the central bank to consider hiking interest rates, which it has said it will only do once tapering is complete, as soon as March. Goldman expects the Fed to wait until June, though, "when a few additional employment reports will be available."
All eyes on OPEC after oil prices plunge
Oil prices have tumbled more than 15% in a month. A coordinated release of millions of barrels of reserves by the United States, China, India, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom helped get the ball rolling.
New restrictions in Europe to tackle a surge in Covid-19 sent prices even lower, before the emergence of a new, potentially more transmissible variant last week pushed them over the edge — US oil traded below $70 a barrel on Friday, down from $85 in late October.
What happens next could depend on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its top allies.
The Wall Street Journal has already reported that OPEC and Russia could stop increasing production in response to the release of reserves by the United States and other major oil consuming nations.
The group has been adding 400,000 barrels per day each month. The White House wanted OPEC and Russia to move more quickly to meet surging demand, but producers including Saudi Arabia held their ground, worried about the risks the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic may pose this winter.
Analysts were already speculating that Europe's new Covid wave would encourage OPEC and Russia to stick to their gradual supply increases when they meet on Wednesday and Thursday. Friday's price plunge now begs the question: will they cut production instead?
OANDA senior market analyst Craig Erlam notes that OPEC and Russia may soon feel compelled to act. "[This week] may come too soon but another major outbreak could see them slam on the brakes."
