Fresh inflation data could fuel further market volatility in the week ahead
After January's surprisingly strong jobs report, focus swings to consumer inflation in the week ahead and what it could mean for the Federal Reserve's plan to raise interest rates.
Friday's report of 467,000 jobs added in January confounded Wall Street economists, some of whom expected a negative number due to the impact of the omicron Covid variant on the workforce. The report was also stunning in other ways. Payrolls were also revised higher by 709,000 jobs in November and December, and wages grew at a hot 5.7% year-over-year pace in January.
“Everyone's back to playing leap frog over each other to see how hawkish they can get about what the Fed's going to do, when the Fed probably doesn't even know itself,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities. Traders in the futures market began to price in six interest rate hikes for this year, while many economists predict four or five.
The consumer price index is reported Thursday, and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey is released Friday. There are also dozens of earnings in the week ahead, including pharmaceutical names Pfizer and Amgen. Walt Disney reports as do consumer staples like Coca-Cola, PepsiCo and Kellogg.
“We may get some sequential improvement in inflation readings. You start looking at the CPI on a month over month basis... there may be movement in the right direction,” said Hogan. He said headline inflation is expected to rise by 0.4%, down from 0.5% in December. But that would still be a hot 7.2% year-over-year reading.
“Maybe movement in inflation in the right direction would be revelatory. I think it might take a bit out of some of the hawkish tone the street has,” he said.
Despite a sharp jump in bond yields, stocks ended Friday with gains for the week. Large swings punctuated trading in the past week, and some individual names were highly volatile. Meta Platforms fell more than 26% in one day on earnings disappointment, and PayPal also lost nearly 25% in a single session after issuing weak guidance. Amazon jumped 13.5% Friday after its earnings.
Julian Emanuel, senior managing director and leader of the equity, derivatives and quantitative strategy team at Evercore ISI, said that type of volatility in individual names highlights the risks for investors in the top tech growth stocks that are among the largest names in the S&P 500.
“It's extremely difficult for investors who have only known how to make money for 15 consecutive years by owning growth stocks to change how they view the world. The volatility we've seen around earnings in some of these names is not a surprise, but it's exacerbated in an economy that is likely to grow north of 4%,” he said.
Emanuel expects cyclical and value stocks to perform better than growth names in an inflationary environment in which the central bank is raising interest rates.
The S&P 500 rose 1.5% in the past week, closing at 4,500, a key technical threshold. The Dow was up 1%, and the Nasdaq was up 2.4% for the week. The Nasdaq is now 13% below its all-time high.
Energy was the best sector for the week, up nearly 5%, followed by consumer discretionary stocks, up just under 4%. Financials were up 3.5%, and tech was up about 1%.
在 1 月份出人意料地强劲的就业报告之后，焦点转向未来一周的消费者通胀以及这对美联储加息计划可能意味着什么。 周五公布的 1 月份新增 467,000 个工作岗位的报告令华尔街经济学家感到困惑，由于 omicron Covid 变体对劳动力的影响，他们中的一些人预计这一数字为负数。该报告在其他方面也令人震惊。 11 月和 12 月的就业人数也上修了 709,000 个，1 月工资同比增长了 5.7%。
National Securities 首席市场策略师 Art Hogan 表示：“当美联储可能甚至不知道自己的情况时，每个人都重新开始互相跳蛙，看看他们对美联储将要做什么的态度有多么强硬。”期货市场交易员开始预计今年将有六次加息，而许多经济学家预测四次或五次。
周四公布消费者价格指数，周五公布密歇根大学消费者信心调查。未来一周还有数十家公司盈利，包括制药公司辉瑞和安进。沃尔特迪斯尼报道了可口可乐、百事可乐和家乐氏等消费必需品。
“我们可能会在通胀数据方面获得一些连续改善。你开始逐月查看CPI……可能会朝着正确的方向发展，”霍根说。他表示，总体通胀预计将上升 0.4%，低于 12 月的 0.5%。但这仍然是一个炙手可热的 7.2% 的同比读数。
“也许通胀朝着正确的方向发展会很有启发性。我认为这可能会消除街头的一些鹰派基调，”他说。
尽管债券收益率大幅上涨，但股市在周五收盘时仍录得本周涨幅。过去一周大幅波动打断了交易，一些个人名称波动很大。 Meta Platforms 因业绩令人失望而单日下跌超过 26%，而 PayPal 在发布疲弱指引后也单日下跌近 25%。亚马逊周五公布财报后股价上涨 13.5%。
Evercore ISI 高级董事总经理兼股票、衍生品和量化策略团队负责人 Julian Emanuel 表示，个别股票的波动凸显了标准普尔 500 指数中最大的科技成长股的投资者面临的风险.
“对于那些只知道如何连续 15 年通过持有成长型股票来赚钱的投资者来说，改变他们对世界的看法是极其困难的。我们在其中一些公司看到的收益波动并不令人意外，但在一个可能增长超过 4% 的经济体中，这种情况会加剧，”他说。
伊曼纽尔预计，在央行加息的通胀环境中，周期性股票和价值股的表现将好于成长股。
标准普尔 500 指数在过去一周上涨 1.5%，收于 4,500 点，这是一个关键的技术门槛。道指上涨 1%，纳斯达克指数本周上涨 2.4%。纳斯达克指数现在比历史高点低 13%。
能源是本周表现最好的板块，上涨近 5%，其次是非必需消费品股，涨幅略低于 4%。金融股上涨 3.5%，科技股上涨约 1%。
